Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario creating four scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These climate runs were analyzed to determine EW TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution seasonal tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that mean increase of at least 40% annual precipitation projected over northern Mexico southwestern USA. Slight positive density southwards 10° N Atlantic Ocean 2050–2060 2080–2090 periods. Over Eastern Pacific Ocean, increment activity westwards across decades. Furthermore, reduction by up 60% mainly Caribbean region, Gulf Mexico, central-southern cyclogenesis both basins slightly (not significant). We concluded these variations could have significant impacts on precipitation.